The coming weeks – or perhaps days – will decide a great deal about the future of this country. Indeed, they may decide whether Canada as it has been shall continue or whether it shall be discarded upon the ash heap of history as a testament to the failures of liberal ideological tripe.

This election matters – I believe it will decide the future of this country. Like many, I’ve long been disgusted by what this country has become under decades of Liberal rule. Under the rule of Liberal Kings we have become a corrupt nation not only in spirit – but in fact as well. If we cannot discard our present rulers, even under these conditions, there will be those who will decide that it is better to risk all for liberty than to continue to live in servitude to remote and arrogant rulers in Ottawa who lead only for the sake of their radical ideology and its friends. Those who chafe at the limitations upon our freedoms will begin from many places, but they will end with a single conclusion – that it is no longer possible to remain within a Federation whose institutions are corrupt and unchangeable. If the Liberals win on January 23rd, the next big question is whether it will be Quebec or Alberta to go first.

There’s a myth out there that Conservatives don’t love Canada. That’s simply not true. We love Canada: we hate what Liberals have made of it. Many of us despair that the situation is worse than hopeless and look elsewhere for the fulfillment of our dreams. Sometimes, in anger, the chains of memory and brotherhood strain – but they do not break. We struggle on. And, even should it come to an end, many of us shall look on from other lands, virtual exiles from the nation of our birth, in the forlorn hope that, as De Gaulle returned to redeem France or as Chalabi and Allawi returned to fight for Iraq, so someday too might the nation of our memories be restored.

What will be decided on January 23rd is the momentous question of whether Canada shall continue to be one land, strong and free, or if certain people so prefer the security of the known, however intolerable it may be, that they will knowingly risk a permanent break with those whose hearts weep at the thought of a nation torn asunder, but whose souls will not permit us to bargain with the Devil even to save our Earthly dominion. That is the truth of the matter.

Let’s begin by assessing the situation as it stands today. At this moment, the Conservatives have a slight bit of momentum. They’ve clearly gained some ground in the last few days on a national level. Their campaign has been cautious but, by not making any major errors, they’ve gained some ground. This has been done with a careful series of moderate policies announcements and first-rate message control. However, even with all of that, my assessment of last week remains – the Conservatives are still losing this election. We are behind in every poll – even where we are gaining. If we were going to the polls today, the best we could hope for would be a hopelessly hung Parliament. More to the point – we’re five points away from anything which could be realistically called a “win.” We’re eight to ten points (at a minimum) away from anything which could result in a stable government.

Those are the facts on the ground as it stands today. At dissolution we held 98 seats. At a bare minimum, we’re going to need about one hundred and twenty to win any sort of government at all. We’re going to need somewhere over one hundred and thirty seats in order to exceed the combined total of the New Democrats and the Liberals. Where are those seats going to come from?

We can probably squeeze another handful out of the West. We’ll probably win both non-Conservative seats in Alberta and a few more elsewhere. Mind you, in British Columbia, it might be a struggle for the party to hold on to what it already has.

In Quebec, we’re dead in the water. If we’re really lucky – and leading at the end of the campaign – we might (barely) win a single seat. We can forget about major wins there, for now.

The Maritimes, similarly, are not somewhere we can contemplate serious gains. A few seats, at the most.

Ultimately, this means that we need to win nearly thirty seats in Ontario to form any kind of serious government. This means that the fundamental task of the remainder of the campaign is to win over Ontario voters and to hold onto them against any Liberal attack. A second, but equally important objective, is to keep New Democratic voters from voting tactically.

Some may wonder why I feel that the Conservatives will need over one hundred and twenty seats in order to form government. I will briefly elaborate on this point.

Imagine if, on January 23rd, we wake up to the following scenario – the 39th Parliament is going to be made up of 119 Conservatives, 103 Liberals, 25 New Democrats, and 61 Bloc members. The popular vote was: Liberals 33%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 19%, Bloc 14% and the rest broken up among the other parties. What happens next?

If traditional were followed, the Prime Minister would go to Rideau Hall advise for Mme. Jean to send for Mr. Harper, who would then be installed as Prime Minister. But what if it didn’t happen that way, this time?

What if, after the election, Mr. Martin were to go and declare that, given that a majority of Canadians had voted for the Liberals and the NDP (and that the NDP-Liberal bloc would command more seats than the Tories) he should continue on as Prime Minister? Does anyone think that Michelle Jean would use her powers to dismiss him? Or do you think that she would accept his advice?

And what would happen after that? The Tories would be left with the choice of defeating the government on the Throne Speech or confirming their installation into power, which could either trigger an election or, alternatively, lead to a gravely weakened Tory Government forced to exist on Bloc support (and certainly constantly assaulted for that fact).

Thus it may be said that we have three possible victory scenarios – a marginal victory (the most seats in the House of Commons), a small victory (a minority with more seats than the combined Liberal-NDP total) or a major victory – a majority. The latter of those we can, I think, safely discount in this election.

So, how do we move towards the magic numbers of 35 (percent of the vote) and 135 (seats)? We cannot, I think, do so simply by hoping that our incremental gains will continue right up through to polling day. The Liberals retain potent weapons in their arsenal which can, I think, stop our present momentum dead if we do not shift the dynamics of the race.

To begin with, the Liberals have a potent collection of negative ads and attacks which are sure to fill the airwaves almost as soon as the New Year begins. Without an effective Tory pushback, those alone would probably be enough to prevent further gains and pull enough New Democrats back onto the Liberal side in order to ensure another Liberal minority.

More than that – even if the Conservatives do gain traction – the Liberals retain two policy A-Bombs which they might choose to unleash at any time – policies which would probably enjoy wide support and which would entirely change the race.

Already, taking a lesson from Gerhardt Schroeder in 2002, Paul Martin has been campaigning for re-election against the United States. If Liberal numbers slip, he might well decide to do so in a more serious fashion.

How would he do that? Simple: by adopting the NDP line that, if the United States fails to back down on Softwood Lumber, Canada will respond by placing a tax on energy exports.

Such a proposal would, I’m confident, command wide support in this country and would pull off one of my favorite political tricks – forcing an opponent (in this case the Tories) to reluctantly take the side of an unpopular group – in this case, Americans. It would, of course, enrage Alberta to no end – but they’re not going to vote Liberal anyways. The Liberals could even make sure to write in exceptions for favored groups and Provinces.

The second bomb – which might well be linked to the first – is to launch some sort of scheme to steal Alberta’s energy wealth and to then distribute it to parts of the nation more hospitable to Liberal venality.

There is only one practical solution to all of this: for us to stand firm and to remain defiant the face of the enemy. We cannot back down – we cannot retreat – we cannot surrender. If we are to defeat the foe, we will not do it from a Foxhole. We cannot slay the beast by inflicting mere flesh wounds as it charges forward. Like the Vampire, the Liberal Party must be killed by a stake to the heart.

How is this killing blow to be inflicted? It will not, I guarantee you, be done with promises of minor adjustments to the tax code – nor will it be achieved by timidity or softness. We cannot win this election – truly win, I mean – simply by not losing. To exterminate the enemy we must go on the offensive, overrun their trenches, bayonet the survivors, and then press onwards.

How do we translate that advice into politics? Truthfully, it can be done with something approaching ease.

We begin by not backing down over anything anyone said in the past or anything that anyone says out on the campaign trail. One of the fatal mistakes of 2004, in my view, was that the Tories repeatedly retreated and apologies over entirely defensible comments – and failed to defend comments which could have been defended. Good examples of this were the controversy over Scott Reid’s comments on bilingualism or the matter of Randy White’s remarks in the final days of the campaign.

Second: we can’t hesitate in launching a negative ad campaign against the Liberals. They won’t hold back – and neither should we. We need to fill the air with ads pointing out the more radical policies which have been proposed by the Liberals (legalized prostitution anyone?) and abusing the Liberals as thieves and liars. The worst which can result out of such a campaign is a wash, as the media and their people on the street complain about the negativity on both sides. In doing this, we cannot make the final mistake of the 1993 Tory campaign – pulling ads which the Liberals attacked.

Finally, we need some bold policies to carry us through the final days of the campaign. Policies which are big enough and important to such up energy as people actually discuss them – and which can be successfully defended against an assault by the Liberal-Media Axis and then used as a club with which to beat the Liberals to death.

Frankly, I think we should to an about-face on health care and announce that a Tory Government will allow the creation of a parallel private health care system like that which exists in Britain, France, Australia, and virtually every other country with a universal system (the only exceptions, in fact, being North Korea and Cuba). Such a proposal would transform the campaign, energize Conservatives, and quite possibly win unlikely converts. It would cut into the support of every other party as, when faced with the simple logic of such an idea, the NDP and Liberals scream like self-proclaimed “Eco-Warrior” Timothy Treadwell did when his bear friends mauled and then ate him.

I realize this sounds crazy to a lot of people. Don’t worry – I’m used to that. But think beyond your pre-conceived notions. Imagine, for a moment, the proposal in action.

Imagine a series of skilled Conservative campaign commercials which fill the airwaves and point out three simple facts over and over again:

1) A parallel system will virtually eliminate waiting lists.
2) The proposal isn’t for an “American-style” system, it’s for a system like they have in France, Britain, Australia, and virtually every other country in the Western World.
3) The only other nations with restrictions on private health care as extensive as ours are North Korea and Cuba.

Repeat those points and, frankly, there’s no real argument against the proposal beyond hysterical bleating. It’s, quite frankly, common sense. That’s why it’s been practically unanimously accepted all over the world – including in nations far more socialistic in Canada.

At the same time, it’s vitally necessary that the Conservatives make getting tough on crime a centerpiece of the final weeks of the campaign. Here, again, there are some simple points which ought to be repeated over and over:

1) A Conservative Government will bring in mandatory minimum sentences for violent crimes and drug crimes.
2) A Conservative Government will abolish conditional sentencing.
3) A Conservative Government will allow for consecutive rather than concurrent sentencing.
Those proposals, in and of themselves, would, if properly publicized, be worth several seats.

We can’t win this thing on points. Victory will come to us only if we are brave enough to deserve it and ruthless enough to seize it. We cannot win – we will not win – if we simply hold back and wait or the Liberals to lose.
With so much – the very future of the country – at stake, we must take risks. We must risk the losses which come from stepping over the top, for we cannot defeat the enemy from the security of shelter. We must take the risk that we might well lose.

But, if we are to lose, we should do so with our heads held high, confident that we never compromised our principles and that we never broke faith with those that came before.
We – those of us who support conservatism – are the true heirs to Canada’s heritage. The nation which exists today is not Canada. It is a Trudeaupian confection, created by Mike Pearson, Pierre Trudeau, and a ten thousand smaller demons of destruction who, for reasons that remain their own, tore down a great nation and sought, much as the Bolsheviks sought to create a “New Soviet Man” to create a “New Canada” in their image.

It is our hearts that beat to the same frequency of those who fell at Vimy and Normandy and on a hundred other battlefields. It is we who remain faithful to their legacy. It is the others – the Liberals – who have broken faith with they who have gone before. From their failing hands the torch is passed to us, and we dare not let it go. Victory will be ours, friends, but only if we seek it the same passion and ardor as our forefathers showed in dispatching other threats to our liberty.