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Wednesday, December 31, 2003
Well
It looks like the East Coast made it through. I'm on the West Coast (obviously) so I'll probably manage to make it bnack on if something happens here. But it looks like we're going to be ok. God willing. I hope.

Well, it looks like Chris Shays was wrong again. At least.
The Shape of Things to Come
Well, the end of 2003 is upon us and, as is customary, every pundit in the world is offering their predictions for the New Year.

The Election:
Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III will not win the Democratic nomination. He will win in Iowa, knocking Dick Gephardt from the race and he’ll win in New Hampshire, but by a much narrower margin than expected. In fact, the big news on January 27th will be the strong showings in New Hampshire by both John Kerry and Wesley Clark, followed by a debate on over who is now the “Anti-Dean.” Dean will win 35% of the vote, Kerry and Clark will split 40% of the vote, and the remaining 25% will be divided between the rest of the field.

The results of the primaries a week later in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina will be divided, which will further hurt Dean’s chances. Democratic Underground will become a battleground, as both sides accuse the other of being kept alive by Republicans crossing over and voting in the Democratic primaries (Dean supporters will charge that they’re voting for a more moderate candidate to try and stop Dean while Clark supporters will charge that they’re voting for Dean in order to ensure a Democratic defeat in November).

To the surprise of everyone, Al Sharpton will win the South Carolina Primary, thereby adding a new dimension to the race. After February 3rd, the tide of battle will turn against Dean, leading his supporters to new levels of hysteria. As the primaries wear on, Dean’s support will gradually drop but he will remain in the delegate lead, especially as the sense of being under siege drives his most dedicated followers to increasing levels of exertion.

Finally, Dean will have to be done in through one of three methods: all of the surviving Democratic candidates will endorse one candidate, one of the Clintons will step in and endorse one candidate, or superdelegates will step forward and pledge themselves. By the time the early primaries are through, it will be clear that the only candidate in the field who can command enough support to wrest the nomination from Dean is Wesley Clark.

However, Dean will not give up. With no candidate commanding a majority, he will fight his way right into the convention. He will seek to have rules changed to allow all delegates a free vote on the first ballot and, failing at that, he will try to prevent anyone from achieving a majority. There will be much talk of a Clark-Dean or Dean-Clark ticket but, by this point, there will be so much bad blood between the two candidates and their supporters that such a thing will be impossible.

During the long wait between the end of major primaries and the convention, both sides will smear eachother. Dean’s supporters will attack Clark’s military record, pointing out his involvement in Waco, that he was relieved from command as SACEUR, and his general unpopularity among military officers. Republicans will join in this. Clark will use proxies, especially in the more socially conservative areas of the nation, to attack Dean over gays and abortion. If caught, he will disavow any knowledge of such activities. Republicans will gladly assist in this as well.

As the Democrats gather in Boston many will talk about the need for an entirely new ticket. In the end though, the party machinery will throw the nomination to Clark, who will take a solid moderate with Washington experience as his running mate. Although Howard Dean has repeatedly foresworn the idea of an independent campaign, I expect that, in the end, he will storm from the convention floor and do just that. After all, if he doesn’t win this year then he’s done for. The sort of lightning which has created his movement doesn’t strike twice.

His best hope at this point will be to campaign as an ‘independent Democrat’ claiming to represent the authentic Democratic Party and to then seek to outpoll the regular Democratic nominee. It doesn’t make much sense when it comes to bring about a Democratic victory, but it makes a lot of sense when it comes to helping out Howard Dean. By that point in time his remaining supporters will have been through so much that they’ll be willing to follow old Howard anywhere.

Clark will seek to gain traction by attacking President Bush in the general election, but the crowd motivated by such attacks will already be behind Howard Dean who will be busy attacking Wesley Clark. Faced with this situation, the Bush re-election campaign will resemble Reagan’s 1984 ‘Morning in America’ campaign, with most of Bush’s energy going into campaigning for down-ticket candidates. Unlike 1984 and 1972, where Reagan and Nixon’s campaigns sought to win fifty-state majorities rather than increasing their coattails, Karl Rove will use the President to make the difference in key Senate and House races across the country.

Between various efforts at redistricting and Presidential campaigning, the Republicans will pick up thirty seats in the House. The real battle will come in the Senate, as the GOP seeks not just a majority but a filibuster-proof majority. The Republicans will pick up all of the open Southern seats: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana. They will lose in Illinois, but hold Alaska. The biggest upsets of the year will come on the West Coast, where Bill Jones will defeat Barbara Boxer in California and ‘Giant-Killer’ George Nethercutt will knock off Patti Murray in Washington. Republicans will desperately fight to win South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nevada in order to gain sixty seats in the Senate, but will win only two out of three, leaving them one short. However, with the support of moderate Democrats, Republicans will finally be able to break Democratic filibusters on Judges.

President Bush will win in a landslide: 45 states and 60% of the vote. The regular Democrat will score 20% percent and Dean will score 20%. The posters on Democratic Underground will blame the results on Diebold before cutting their wrists or jumping from tall buildings.

Oh, yes: and the 2008 Presidential Campaign will begin at about 12:01AM on November 3rd, 2004.

The War:
Osama Bin Laden will either be killed or will be confirmed as having been killed in December 2001 during the Battle of Tora Bora. The situation in Iraq will gradually grow in stability.

At some point during the year, the Iraqi guerrillas will pull off a spectacular attack which the media will depict as a major reversal for the Coalition. However, such an attack will actually bolster American will to win the war.

Syria will see the writing on the wall and come to an accommodation with the Untied States such as Libya has. Howard Dean will claim that it is the result of Bill Clinton’s patient diplomacy.

Ariel Sharon will cheer leftists and anti-Semites the world over by resigning as Prime Minister of Israel. The above-mentioned individuals will be less-cheered when he is replaced by Benjamin Netanyahu, who proves to be very popular with the Israeli people. The conflict in Israel will continue, but at a reduced pace as both sides become increasingly war-weary. The Israelis will work to effect a unilateral separation.

North Korea will, when the world gets bored of hearing their words, test a nuclear device. This will prompt Japan to modify its Constitution and to debate acquiring nuclear weapons. The United States will continue to pursue its strategy of turning the North Korean problem into the problem more of South Korea, Japan, and China then itself.

If there is another major terrorist attack, there will probably be another invasion or military strike. Iran, Syria (if it has yet to capitulate) and the Sudan are all strong possibilities.

If President Musharraf is killed or there is a coup in Pakistan, the US will launch a spectacular lightning attack in the hopes of disarming Pakistan of nuclear weapons. If such a move fails, India might choose to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Pakistan.

Venezuela will increasingly become visible as the year goes on. By the end of the year a majority of US neo-conservatives will favor military action against Chavez.

And, I think, that’s about it. Now we’ll wait to see how wrong I am.
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
Why Howard Dean is Unfit to be President
Tonight, in his conference call, Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III declared that, as President, his first act would be to, "reverse every single executive order Bush ever signed." (This has been reported on the Dean blog and on Free Republic as well). This is, to put it mildly, one of the stupidest things that I can ever recall any serious candidate for President ever saying.

Will he reverse this order, providing for rapid naturalization for Permanent Residents in the Armed Forces?

Will he reverse this order, blocking terrorist financing?

Will he reverse this order, allowing for the detention of terrorists?

Will he reverse this order, providing for the protection of critical infastructure?

This is exactly the kind of thing that, I think, could kill him before he even gets the nomination. Did he think before saying it?
Amending the Constitution
One of the best features of the United States Constitution is the amendment process which the founders built into it. While the process is difficult enough to generally temper it against the fickle will of public opinion, it is simple enough to allow for it to be used when there is general agreement on an issue. The actual design of the Amendment process seems to have been an afterthought: it isn’t even mentioned in the Federalist Papers. Some (such as Thomas Jefferson) expected the entire Constitution to be rewritten every few decades.

Yet it has endured, and for good reason. Because the Constitution is fairly simple it works fairly well. Because it is hard to modify, people do not try unless no other remedy is available. In general, those who try in the face of other remedies fail.

Let us consider for a moment the exact process set out by the Constitution. Article V of the Constitution reads (in part):

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof .

In other words, in order to be passed, an Amendment requires the consent of 2/3’s of the Congress and 3/4th’s of the states. Because this process provides for the equality of the states (each state, in ratification, is treated as an equal) this means that an Amendment supported by 95% of the population could, in theory, be sunk by less than 5% of the people if those people were concentrated in the twelve smallest states.

Let us compare this Amendment process to those found in the California and Florida state Constitutions. In California a Constitutional Amendment is ratified if it is agreed to by two-thirds of both Houses of the State Legislature and a majority of the people, voting in a referendum . In Florida an Amendment is ratified if it is agreed to by three-fifths of both Houses and a majority of the people .

It is, then, much easier to Amend the Florida or California Constitution than it is to modify the United States Constitution. There are also, however, other Constitutions that are much harder to modify.

The Canadian Constitution, for example, requires not only passage of an Amendment by the House of Commons and the Senate, but also, “resolutions of the legislative assemblies of at least two-thirds of the provinces that have, in the aggregate, according to the then latest general census, at least fifty per cent of the population of all the provinces. ” While, on the surface, this might sound like an easier process than that in use in the United States it is, in fact, much more stringent. Because Canada has only ten Provinces, it would require the assent of seven Provinces to provide for any Amendment to the Constitution. Moreover, because of stark regional differences, it is highly unlikely that any national amendment will ever be adopted. The only changes that have been made to the present Canadian Constitution since its promulgation are the result of a direct agreement between the Canadian Federal government and an individual Province, providing for an Amendment which takes effect in a single province.

It is difficult to argue, I think, that the Amendment process arrived at by the Founders is anything but near-perfect. After all, how many other legislative documents remain relevant after two hundred and fifteen years?

Amendments Ratified to Date:
What the amendment process set out by the Constitution means, in practice, is that very little (if anything) is ever added unless it needs to be there. The Constitution has been in effect for nearly two hundred and fifteen years and, in that period of time, it has been amended just twenty-seven times.

Of those twenty-seven amendments, thirteen were proposed during the first fifteen years after the Constitution was adopted . In other words, in the two hundred years that have passed between 1804 and 2004 only fourteen Amendments to the Constitution have been proposed and ratified.

These have tended to come in bursts. In the immediate aftermath of the Civil War there were three Amendments ratified (the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments) which abolished slavery, guaranteed citizenship rights, and extended the franchise to all male citizens over the age of twenty-one. Four more Amendments were passed immediately before and after the First World War. These amendments were largely driven by the ‘Progressive’ political movement of the early years of the 20th Century and allowed for the establishment of an income tax (the 16th Amendment), provided for the direct election of Senators (the 17th Amendment), prohibited liquor (the 18th Amendment) and gave women the right to vote (the 19th Amendment).

The 18th Amendment, I think, is notable because it is the only obvious example of the Constitutional Amendment process being used as a method of legislation. Other Constitutional Amendments broadly fall into several areas: safeguarding the rights of citizens, guaranteeing the rights of citizens, modifying the structure of government, and making technical corrections to the Constitution.

For example, five of the Amendments proposed after the Bill of Rights deal with either how people vote for the President, the term in office served by the President, or the powers of the Presidency . Six amendments have dealt with voting rights . Thus disposed are ten (the 23rd Amendment falling into both groups) of the seventeen Amendments ratified after the bill of rights. The others mostly fall into a number of categories. The 11th Amendment deals with Judicial powers, the 13th and 14th Amendments deal with citizenship rights, the 16th Amendment allows for an income tax, and the 27th Amendment bans Congress from raising its own pay within a single session. That leaves exactly two Amendments unaccounted for: the 18th Amendment and the 21st Amendment.

The 18th Amendment, of course, instituted Prohibition while the 21st Amendment repealed it just fourteen years later. The 18th Amendment holds the distinction of being the only Amendment ever to be repealed. There is a good reason for this (ones opinions on prohibition aside): it never belonged in the Constitution in the first place.

Virtually every other Amendment to the Constitution deals with an issue that could not be dealt with legislatively. The Congress could not change the method of electing the President without changing the Constitution. Slavery could not be fully abolished without an amendment. An appointed Vice President could not be provided for otherwise, nor electoral votes for the District of Columbia. These had no other remedy.

Prohibition, on the other hand, did. To this very day twenty-six of Alabama’s sixty-seven counties are “dry” . The only reason why advocates sought the passage of a national prohibition amendment was that they feared that, “any national prohibition law passed by one congress could be overturned with a simple majority vote by some future congress .”

A combination of strong public approval and conditions caused by the First World War allowed prohibition to be rammed through in 1919. This is the single instance of an Amendment being added to serve a purpose un-related to the Constitution. Consider that, for a moment. Over the centuries any number of popular movements: some for good, some for ill, have spread over America. Yet there were never any Anti-Masonic Amendments added to the Constitution. No Amendment was ever added stripping citizenship from Catholics. Through everything, the Constitution itself has remained a document of higher purpose.

The Issue of Legislation by Constitution and Failed Amendments:
In showing how one of the greatest effects of the present Constitution is to prevent “legislation by Constitution” I have illustrated how the difficult process set out restricts the number and scope of Amendments adopted.

Let us consider, for a moment, the perils of more lenient processes. For example, in the 2002 General Election the voters of Florida were asked to consider eleven Constitutional Amendments, of which nine passed (one was withdrawn from the ballot, and one voted down) . These Amendments dealt with topics including: workplace smoking, pre-school, public school class sizes, and the treatment of pregnant pigs . This occurs for much the same reason why the advocates of prohibition laws sought to enshrine prohibition in the Constitution: the movers behind each amendment want to make it much more difficult for a future citizenry to rid themselves of the will of their ancestors.

The fact that the national Constitution has not been amended in such a way, I might add, is not so much due to any wisdom possessed by Congressmen over State Representatives. Had the Congress the ability to pass national amendments by the same process as the states, I have little doubt that the voters would by now be hard at work on passing Amendments to outlaw all taxes while quadrupling spending.

An examination of some of the Constitutional Amendments that have passed the Congress but failed to be ratified by the States provides a further example of just how well the process outlined by the Constitution works.

For example, in 1810 an Amendment was proposed which would have stripped American citizenship from any citizen who, “shall accept, claim, receive or retain any title of nobility or honour, or shall, without the consent of Congress, accept and retain any present, pension, office or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince or foreign power .” While much of the examination of this amendment has revolved around the contention of some that the Amendment was actually ratified, and therefore lawyers (who use the title “Esquire”) are no longer American citizens, it is more significant for another reason: it was a stupid and pointless idea.

In 1861, during the run up to the Civil War, an Amendment to the Constitution was proposed that would have granted protection to slavery. It passed both Houses of Congress and, I suspect, would have been ratified if it were subjected to California or Florida standards. Instead, it was ratified by just two states .

Other Amendments: an Amendment giving the Federal Government the power to regulare the labor of persons under eighteen, an Amendment which would have given Washington, DC full representation in Congress, and the Equal Rights Amendment were also passed by Congress and failed. In two of these cases (the Child Labor Amendment and the ERA) the Congress once again crossed the line into legislating through the Constitution and were stopped only by the Amendment process.

The Amendment Process Today:
A new factor has been introduced into the question in recent years. While it is generally agreed that the Constitution ought not to be amended for legislative purposes: should it be amended for such purposes when it is necessary to do so to correct decisions made by the Supreme Court?

For example, in 1990, the Supreme Court ruled that burning the flag was protected speech under the First Amendment . This ruling struck down the 1989 Flag Protection Act, passed by the Congress after (in Texas v. Johnson) the Supreme Court had struck down state laws prohibiting the desecration of the American flag. Since that time the Congress has been seeking to pass an Amendment to prohibit flag desecration. While such an Amendment has yet to pass , it seems to grow in support every year. Frankly, I suspect that, sooner or later, it will pass and be ratified by the requisite number of states.

This, of course, begs the question: is it ok to use the Constitution to legislate as a means of overturning Supreme Court decisions? I am inclined to say that, in the absence of other options, it is. But also that we must be careful.

One of the reasons that advocates of various causes prefer the use of the Constitution as an ultimate form of legislation is not just that they wish to make their will hard to repeal. They also wish to impose their will upon the nation as a whole. This was certainly true in the case of Prohibition, where advocates were perfectly free to settle in ‘dry’ states or counties but, instead, chose to impose their will upon the nation as a whole. It was true in the case of the Equal Rights Amendment, where certain groups sought to impose their view of the world upon the nation as a whole (I shudder to think what our present Courts would have done with the ERA on hand).

Today we are faced with the contentious issue of gay marriage. The decision of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court in the case of Goodridge v. Department of Public Health has made the issue unavoidable. As things stand today, once the state legalizes gay marriage, it will be imposed upon the entire nation due to the ‘full faith and credit’ clause of the Constitution.

We are thus left with a difficult question: do we use the Constitution to prevent homosexuals from marrying, or do we use the coercive power of the Federal Government to impose gay marriage upon states who plainly do not wish it?

It seems to me, at least, that there must be some other way.

Conclusion:
The solution to many of our social ills, I think, is simple: Federalism. I see absolutely no reason why, if the people of Vermont want gay marriage, they cannot have gay marriage. Correspondingly, I see no reason why if the people of Indiana do not want gay marriage, they must have it forced upon them.

This is so today only because our courts have a regrettable tendency to intrude upon what properly are state matters and, as a result, the opponents of individual decisions are left, in the face of Supreme Court rulings, no choice but to seek a national solution. We need to place more emphasis on the 10th Amendment and less on the 14th. If California wants abortion and Wyoming does not: let them both decide. The result of the present system is a sort of judicial totalitarianism which creates national issues where none should exist. The great advantage of such a large and diverse nation with a mobile populace ought to be that there should be room for many different groups of people to live the way they wish.

Look, for example, at the recent case of former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, who was ordered by a Federal Court to remove a monument featuring the Ten Commandments and then removed from the bench for refusing to follow the removal order. The balance of the Constitution is threatened when it is amended by judicial fiat.

The Constitution was carefully designed for a reason. Amendment was meant to be a careful (and rare) process, not an unseen and largely unwritten process which takes place largely in the minds of Judges whom no one elected and who, seemingly, no one can remove.

If our Constitution is to be eternal, we must take care not to tinker with it too much. The original process of Amendment was a good one: one that worked well for many years. It ought to be left the way it was meant to be.

I Realize That I'm Known as an Ultra Social Conservative...
But this is just really stupid.
Monday, December 29, 2003
Michael Jackson: Moslem?
I reported several weeks ago on rumors that Michael Jackson had converted to Islam. Now there are reports that the Nation of Islam is controlling that affairs of the pervert.

The article denies that Jackson is a Moslem. Yet still, one wonders.
An American Utopia
I have often been asked to outline by vision for the American future. By now regular readers will be aware of the broad outlines of the solution that I advocate to the present problems of the nation but, perhaps, not of the ultimate goal. What do I envision for the nation, a century hence?

Now, what I have written is not, in all ways, a utopia. A few things have, to make the world a describe, gone wrong. That is more a description of the inevitable reckoning that I see in the nation’s future than it is a reflection of my desire to see harm inflicted upon anyone.

Heinlein Naval Base, Mars Territory
January 1, 2104

The President of the United States and the President of the Russian Federation, along with the British, Australian, Japanese, and Israeli Prime Ministers stood together on the deck of the USS Beijing, jointly observing the grand fleet review staged each year for five decades by the Alliance for Democracy. Named for the terrible battle in which nearly twenty-thousand Americans (and several million Chinese) had died, the Beijing was the most powerful space warship built by humanity to date. Her advanced drives allowed her to make the cruise from the Earth to Mars in just three days and she carried sufficient armament to wipe out entire nations, should the need ever arise. Her energy shields made her impervious to all but the most advanced weapons.

Some argued that the construction of ships such as the Beijing was a waste, seeing as there had not been a major war for more than sixty years. However, the 34th Amendment to the Constitution specified, in an effort to avoid the constant cycle by which America was always caught unprepared for war and paid a terrible price in blood as a result, that no less than 7.5% of the Gross Domestic Product be spent on defense. The resultant $41 trillion defense budget was viewed as wasteful by some and, in fact, the Congress regularly found ways of disguising wasteful social spending as being military in character- yet it seemed to work fairly well. After all, that $41 trillion left (in 2103, at least) $512 trillion for the rest of the country. While the per capita income of $792,857.14 enjoyed by the average American might have sounded excessive to those of earlier generations, when inflation was factored in, it really meant that the average American had purchasing power equal only to three times that of their counterparts a century earlier.

Of course, how the average American earned that income would have been mystifying to earlier generations. By 2104 barely 5% of all Americans worked in manufacturing and agriculture combined, with most of the rest working, in essence, to provide services to eachother. A typical “Industrial Worker” now had a Doctoral degree, and was generally a specialized engineer. Modern social scientists now looked back upon the industrial age, in which a majority of the people had been employed in production of some type or another, with the same contempt that their predecessors had viewed the days when the vast majority of humans were engaged in agriculture.

The education system had been totally reformed over the years. While public education now lasted for only four years- the First and Second Grades and the Eleventh and Twelfth Grades. The main purpose of public schools was to provide children with a proper respect for the nation’s institutions and ideals as well as through lessons as to her history: especially the mistakes of the 20th and 21st centuries. Non-denominational Religious instruction, while not compulsory, was almost universally attended. In the years between the second and eleventh grades children were educated in a variety of for-profit institutions which provided them with the tools for any sort of specialization. However, while education was generally a for-profit business (some institutions, mostly religious, political, or military in character were charities) no student was denied an education based on their parent’s inability to pay. However, the names of any parent forced to rely upon the public treasury to school their children were published in newspapers and online.

Naturally, many of those known to be living off of the taxpayers were prone to be challenged in duels. Dueling, a practice almost forgotten, was reintroduced in the third decade of the 21st Century, initially in inner-cities. This, of course, came not long after the Supreme Court managed to find a “right to die and choose one’s means of death” in the Constitution. After several violent attacks involving gangs which killed large numbers of innocents, the leader of the largest Hispanic gang (who, as it happened, had a PH.D in American History) decided that the only answer to safeguard the rights of innocents was a revival of the Code Duello. After all, he reasoned, gang members and other thugs had been killing eachother as long as anyone could remember and they were unlikely to ever stop, but there was little reason for others to have to die. The practice caught on like wildfire, being viewed as an ultimate test of manhood. Though as first various orders of government tried to stop it, they soon reversed course and embraced the practice, especially seeing that it actually reduced overall urban violence. Before long it spread to the rest of society. While early duels had been fought with knives and modern pistols, it was not long before dueling had become a celebrated and highly ritualized practice. Modern duels were typically fought with swords or single-shot black power pistols. One could be challenged to a duel for any reason- and could refuse a challenge. However, a general prejudice had developed that any man who refused a duel was a probable homosexual and, therefore, refusals were generally rare and those who refused often fled. As a result people in the 22nd Century had generally learned not to insult hot-headed individuals and, additionally, governments had developed a lamentable tendency to attempt to rid themselves of various problems by publishing the names of individuals involved in the hope that duels would swiftly dispose of said individuals.

Science, as it turned out, was both the greatest friend and greatest enemy of homosexuality. In 2021 a reliable AIDS vaccine was finally developed and a gene was discovered proving that, in more than 95% of cases, homosexuality was a genetic occurrence. In the short term this led to a great boon for the gay rights movement. However, towards the last decades of the century gay activists began to note an alarming trend: their shrinking ranks. Eventually it was determined that, as genetic modification, examination, and selection of human embryos became more common, a great many parents had quietly chosen not to have children who carried the “gay” gene. In the vast majority of cases the people who made these decisions fancied themselves to be supporters of gay rights- but they themselves had visions of grandchildren and traditional weddings. Most agreed that this was a great injustice, but no one did anything about it.

The effects of the ‘Genetic Revolution’ were (otherwise) not nearly as dramatic as anyone had expected. While the average lifespan continued to edge upwards (it presently stood at a whisker under a century) no method to stop or reverse aging had yet to be discovered. Certain forms of genetic engineering were quite popular by the 22nd Century: for example, methods had been discovered to raise the intelligence of a child by up to twenty points. However, beyond howls from some about the creation of a ‘genetic underclass’ few actual effects had yet to be seen.

After the completion of the Twelfth Grade, virtually all Americans were enrolled for a three-year term of national service which either consisted of military service or service in some sector of the civilian government. While enlistment was far from mandatory, a failure to serve limited employment opportunities and citizenship rights. For example, Americans who did not enroll could not, by law: vote, serve on juries, be President or Vice President, live off-planet, attend university, or hold any of a great number of ‘service-only’ jobs. Those who did military service were enrolled in Earth-based ground defense units. Only after initial enrollment could one enlist in the regular forces. Those who enlisted in the regular forces were entitled to an additional vote for every ten years of service. All of these reforms were instituted after the Chinese War and the Second Great Depression of the mid-21st Century, which were widely judged as being the result of a fat and complacent electorate unwilling to make hard choices such as slashing spending or confronting emerging threats, even at a terrible cost. After that war, which cost more than four million American lives and saw the nuclear destruction of the Cities of Seattle and Honolulu, China had been broken up into a dozen states and ‘pastoralized’.

After the terrible destruction of the Chinese War and the European Civil War, the victorious states- who had joined during the war as the ‘Alliance for Democracy’ had decided that the nations responsible for the war had shown such irresponsibility that they had to be disarmed for all time. If the Chinese, or the remnants of the European Unionists, ever attempted to threaten the peace of the world again, they would simply be bombed into nothingness by orbital weapons.

Criminal punishments were generally swift and harsh. Petty criminals, especially young offenders, were often penalized by a public lashing. The method of execution prescribed by law in nearly every state (and by the Federal Government) was public hanging. This came about as a result of a popular view that, while the state had the right to execute people, the people ought to understand the terrible power wielded by the state. Despite (or, perhaps, because of) this, executions of murderers were extremely common- as were those of serial child molesters and rapists.

Politics, of course, continued. There were three major parties in America: the Republican Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Christian Constitutionalist Party. The Republican Party was the majority party- typically holding a majority in both Houses of Congress, a majority of state Governorships, and the Presidency. However, about 20% of the time power would shift to the Libertarians with, even more rarely, (roughly once every two generations) it going to the Christian Constitutionalists (who were universally known as the ‘Christians’). As a general rule, the Republicans were the most ardently enthusiastic for massive projects and a broader, constructive role for government while the Libertarians favored further reductions in the size of Government. The majority of the Christian platform called for, “enacting the will of our LORD and SAVIOR Jesus Christ into the laws of the land.”

By the early 22nd Century the Environmentalist movement of a century before is viewed as being as silly as those of 1996 viewed those who called for 16:1 coinage of Silver in 1896. Technology has, over time, made the environment noticeably better than it was before. With the benefit of time, the people of the 22nd Century do not understand how the people of the late 20th Century were so foolish as to believe that the Earth was on the verge of destruction.

All things considered, the people of the 22nd Century are healthier, better-educated, better-defended, richer, and happier than their ancestors. While things are far from perfect- they’re going alright.
Sunday, December 28, 2003
DU Roundup
Apparently a huge number of Democratic Underground posters think that the World Trade Center was destroyed by internal explosions (presumably set by the Bush Administration).

Meanwhile, members are threatening eachother and attempting to get eachother fired over the 2004 Presidential Primaries.

Osama Bin Laden is also an agent of the US Government.

Time for An Investigation
The Argus has a good piece about how MoveOn.org may or may not be in violation of campaign laws. It's time for the FEC and IRS to come now on these people. Hard.
Saturday, December 27, 2003
The Strange Rise of Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III
All of the talk about how, in a general election campaign, Howard Dean will be able to “move to the centre” misses an important point: the only reason why, today, Howard Dean is the front-runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination is the dedication, organization, and fanaticism of his supporters. The network that supports Dean wasn’t created by him: it created him. Relatively early on in the race, a group of cyber-Democrats gathered in a smoke-free room and said of Governor Dean, “here he is- this is our man.” The blogs, the Meet-Ups, and everything else are tools which brought Howard Dean to where he is also work to limit his appeal. It may look like Dean is driving a steamroller through the Democratic primaries: but it only looks that way. He isn’t driving the steamroller: he’s running in front of it and it can crush him just as easily as it can anyone else.

The Democrat campaign is a series of paradoxes. The Democrats probably can’t win with Dean: but they certainly can’t win without him. Dean cannot win without expanding his appeal to the centrist and independent voters: but he certainly cannot win anything without the support of his base which has demonstrated that it is easily capable of abandoning him if he tries to abandon any of his signature left-wing positions.

Dean’s professional campaign team (and the candidate himself) are fond of describing the campaign as “grassroots driven.” This is, to a large extent, true. However, it is also dangerous. Winston Churchill said that the best argument against democracy was a conversation with the average voter. Dean, in essence, is running his campaign based on a series of conversations with liberal activists.

This means two things: first, that the Dean campaign is making strategy based upon a flawed worldview. Second, it means that the campaign self-reinforcing when it heads on a suicidal course, and self-immolating when it heads on a sensible course. Without many big donors or much institutional support (from unions, the party, or minority groups), the Dean campaign is essentially at the mercy of the mob.

At the present time polls show that President Bush would beat Howard Dean by a full twenty points (55% to 35%). More surprisingly, a recent poll shows that- if the election featured Bush versus Dean, only 70% of Democrats would vote for Dean (with 20% voting for Bush and 10% uncertain). With about the same amount of time to go in 2000, Bush only led Gore by nine points. Other polls show Bush beating Dean by twenty-three points and eighteen points. Bush beats even the ‘generic Democrat’ by eight points. The same poll that shows Bush leading 55% to 35% shows that Bush leads among Independents by 57% to 28%.

Now, it is true that Dean could still win this. While he has the solid support of only about 10% of the electorate (Democrats make up about 30% of voters, and Dean supporters make up about 1/3 of Democrats), he will probably be able to, if he wins the nomination, secure the absolute loyalty of most Democrats. However, much of his base of support will erode the moment that he tries to shift towards the middle. Dean has managed to become the front-runner by outbidding all the other serious candidates of the left. Dean (and his supporters) truly hate President Bush. That’s enough to win Dean the nomination- it isn’t enough to win him the general election.

The problem is that Dean’s supporters are operating with a view of the political scene that is fundamentally wrong. First, they have interpreted signs of Republican dissatisfaction with a few of President Bush’s policies as a sign that Republicans are ready to revolt. Only they aren’t. Polls regularly show that over 90% of Republicans plan to vote for the President in 2004 and that the President retains a job approval rating of between 55% and 60%. Even of those who disapprove, I suspect that a majority of them do not hate the President personally.

Frankly, I suspect a Howard Dean being presented before national audiences launching hatred-filled tantrums against the President will come off, more than anything else, as a little nuts. Yet, if Dean attempts to move towards the middle now, he won’t be able to win the nomination. But, if he doesn’t start to move towards the middle, he won’t win the general election.

What is shaping up now, especially as Dean seemingly begins to bleed momentum, is the worst-case scenario for the Democrats. Dean will probably win Iowa and New Hampshire but, I suspect, with less support than expected. The question of whether Dean is electable will nag at voters as they step into the booth. Dean will manage to limp through the rest of the primaries in the lead, but fail to win enough delegates to take the nomination. Other candidates will limp along as well, but not with enough to win even if they combined. A furious Dean and his enraged supporters will move into the summer, confused and lashing out. The Democratic National Convention in Boston will be the most exciting (and damaging) in memory. Either the party will manage to nominate a badly-wounded Dean, or it will manage to anoint someone else, to the fury of Dean’s supporters.

One need only read Democratic Underground and other left-wing web sites to see what is going on. A few months ago, they were busy hating George W. Bush. They still hate him now, but they’re starting to hate eachother more: and not a single vote has yet been cast.

Many Republicans are talking about going into open primaries to vote for Al Sharpton. They shouldn’t: they should look at the polls and vote for whatever candidate other than Howard Dean has the best chance of winning their state’s primary. The longer the Democrats rip eachother apart, the better for us.

The likelihood of victory does not mean that we can stop fighting or slow down. We are nearly in a position to deliver a death-blow to the Democratic Party: let us do it. Let the mailed fist of Republican glory smash down upon them.
President Al Gore
Let’s think about a hypothetical scenario. Imagine that Al Gore had been elected President in the year 2000, that 9-11 happened, and Gore responded by invading Afghanistan (which, under a Gore Administration, dragged on into mid-2002, because there was no Donald Rumsfeld to drive the adoption of an innovative strategy). He followed a course on the rest of the war broadly similar to that followed by George W. Bush. By the end of 2002, he remains a relatively popular President and even manages to win Democratic control of the House and Senate.

There are several major Republicans running for President. George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, who both narrowly win re-election, opt out of the race. Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee is the early leader, followed by Representative Tom Delay of Texas, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Governor Bill Owens of Colorado, Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, political commentator Alan Keyes, and, finally, former Governor George S. Patton III of South Carolina.

While they vary by degree, most of the major candidates (Frist, Delay, McConnell, Owens, and Santorum) offer pretty much the same package. They strongly attack Gore, who is hated by the President, promise to cut taxes, and promise to wage the war more strongly. Major Republicans line up behind various establishment candidates, with the youthful Frist tapped as the early front-runner (and generally viewed as the most moderate of the group) while other Republicans divide their support between the other candidate who, while conservative, generally remain within the Republican mainstream.

Governor Patton (the grandson of the famous General and a fictional character) doesn’t do that, however. While the other candidates discuss waging the War on Terrorism “more strongly” in general terms, he makes fiery speeches in which he promises to invade Iraq and Iran, and strongly suggests that he would like to use force elsewhere as well. While the other candidates speak against gay marriage, he promises to do whatever he has to in order to stop gay marriages- even once making a comment (which he then, with a wink, retracts) about sending in Federal troops to break up gay weddings. He promises to push for an amendment to the Constitution banning abortion, and discusses his desire to throw abortionists in jail or, perhaps, execute them. He comes out strongly and publicly for racial profiling. He is, in a word, unelectable.

At first Governor Patton is more or less regarded as a fringe candidate and he rests at less than 5% in national polls. But, through Free Republic and other conservative internet sites, he steadily gains support of Republican activists. The party elders detest him, but his speaking style (which owes more to George C. Scott than it does to his grandfather) wins him even more supporters. Before long, he begins to climb in national polls, and the media picks up on him as the next big thing.

He takes hits for his positions, but that merely reinforces his support as his followers give him more money to “defend Patton.” Soon polls show that he has the support of a third of likely Republican voters. However, the same polls also show that three in ten Republicans aren’t even sure if they’d vote for him in a general election versus President Gore. While the people on Free Republic and Patton’s campaign blog may hate Al Gore, the majority of the American people do not. They may disagree with him, but they view him as having generally done an acceptable job. They may wish change, but they do not wish radical change.

Patton actually has a fairly moderate record as the Governor of South Carolina- he’s taken a stand against flying the Confederate flag, for example. Of course, it’s only moderate by the standards of South Carolina- but it would help in a general election, but only if he can shift. The problem is that he can’t shift because, if he does, he’ll rapidly lose his base. One of the greatest problems associated with gaining support via the internet is that you can lose it via the internet just as rapidly.
Friday, December 26, 2003
Dean: Bin Laden Needs Jury Trial
This man is just utterly stupid. Read this.
Thursday, December 25, 2003
Las Vegas: Christmas Day, 2003
Apparently Homeland Security efforts managed to foil a 9-11 style attack on Las Vegas- as the Washington Post is set to report tommorow (via Matt Drudge).

Damn.
Musharraft Assasination Attempt
Frankly, I'm wondering if this second attempt on Mushararaf's life was a signal, like the assasination of the leader of the Northern Alliance right before 9-11.
To the Ninth Degree
Naturally, the Palestinian terrorists have chosen to mark Christmas with a suicide bombing. I hardly regard this as a surprise as, given by events of recent years, human fireworks seem to be the traditional Islamic way of celebrating just about any holiday (additionally today, Pakistani President Musharraf was almost killed in another suicide bombing). I often believe that people fail to understand just how desperate the situation in Israel is this: they’re losing the war. Israel has one of the strongest militaries in the world, they have hundreds of nuclear weapons, and they have every type of military technology that you can dream of. Yet still, it finds itself faced with a bitter reality: if things continue along the present course, Israel will lose and, within a few decades, it will cease to exist.

In The Death of the West Pat Buchanan tells of a conversation that he had with President Richard Nixon about Israel. Nixon declared that, in the short term, Israel would be fine. But, in the long term, it would be endangered by the demographic facts on the ground. Asked what Israel’s long-term fate would be Nixon, in the fashion of a Roman Emperor, made a fist and slowly gave a thumbs-down.

Israel is struggling against the tyranny of fixed numbers. The Moslem population within Israel is growing much faster than the Jewish population is while, at the same time, the will of the Israeli people to struggle for a Jewish state is being worn away by a combination of economic suffering, random homicide bombings, and the weight of world disapproval.

In my mind’s eye I can see what will happen, if things are let to be. Israel will acquiesce to the creation of a Palestinian state. Soon thereafter, the Palestinian state will begin demanding new concessions from the rump Israel: new land, additional rights for Arabs remaining within Israel, and whatever else they can dream up. Arabs and Moslems within Israel will begin to agitate for union with the Palestinian state: and their voices will grow with time as they breed. Eventually their numbers will grow so large that Israel will be given the choice of either surrendering or becoming a dictatorship. Israel will hold on for a little while after that but, year by year, their resolve will fade. Finally, with the cheering of the Europeans, the United Nations, and the American left, whatever is left of Israel will agree to the creation of a ‘multiethnic state’, thereby restoring the territorial integrity of Arab Palestine. The new state will, of course, constitutionally enshrine protections for all religions- and those will last for a while. But, in the end, I foresee that the Mediterranean shore will be foaming with much blood: Jewish blood.

Some will hold that I am being excessively pessimistic, but I think that they’re fools. Anyone who looks long enough at the Middle East can see two things. First, that the Islamic cries over Israel will never be appeased until that nation has been wiped from the map and the Jews either driven out or forced into a state of Dhimmitude. Second, that as things stand today, a great number of Israeli Jews are willing to sign away their future for a little temporary security today.

I’ve had dreams about this, nightmares. I see myself in the not-to-distant future, visiting refugee camps somewhere in America, refugee camps that house the battered and sick survivors of Israel. After all: what other nation would take them in? I can see them, with the sad eyes of a race that has too many times endured the unendurable, bared the unbearable, and lived though the unliveable. ‘Never Again’ means something to me: something real.

Israel is breaking because her civilian will is evaporating faster than that of the Palestinians. Why is this? Aren’t Palestinian civilians dying as well? Yes, they are: but not in numbers anywhere near as great as Israeli civilians, and certainly not in the same fashion. Palestinian civilians die when they get caught up in the effects of legitimate military actions, not when they go to the grocery store. Moreover, unlike Israelis, the Palestinian people as a whole are well-adapted to the problems of war and deprivation. More than that: they support this war, as polls and facts shows. Palestinian mothers encourage their children to become suicide bombers and celebrate their martyrdom. Palestinian schools revel in violence and terror. It isn’t just that Yassir Arafat and Hamas are guilty: the entire Palestinian population is guilty of great crimes.

In Imperial China the families of enemies of the state were liable to be punished, “to the ninth degree.” In essence, that meant that the entire family of such a person would, where possible, be executed. In practice this meant that the government would send a group of soldiers to the hometown of the enemy, and have them kill everyone they could find. It was a cruel policy: but it was also effective. Such a policy not only deters action by an individual, it also encourages members of that individual’s family (even very distant members) to keep watch over potentially dangerous members of their family.

Now, in this day and age, the people would never approve of a policy which called for the mass execution of people simply because of their bloodlines. Nor, under the present circumstances, would such a policy be wise: it would encourage the relatives of suicide attackers to become suicide bombers themselves.

However, what I propose is this: whenever a suicide bomber is identified their family should immediately have their property confiscated, their home burned to the ground, and then be either deported far away or imprisoned. The war being waged by the Palestinians is a collective act that demands collective punishment.

Some might think that such a solution is cruel. It is. But, as William Tecumseh Sherman reminded us, war it cruelty: there’s no refining it. The more cruel it is, the sooner it will be over.
Wednesday, December 24, 2003
Dean for America
I was rewatching the Aaron Sorkin-penned The American President a few nights ago. Despite its liberal leanings, I must admit that I’ve always had a soft spot for it. In any case, I enjoy it more because it doesn’t actually show anything that happened after President Sheppard (played by Michael Douglas) makes his little speech at the end in which he, among other things, vows to, “go door to door,” and, “get the guns.” Frankly, I suspect that any President making a speech such as that (in the same speech he also advocates the burning of the American flag, calls on his likely opponent to join the ACLU, and calls for a 20% reduction in all Fossil Fuel emissions) would probably be either impeached or assassinated in short order. In any case, I like to imagine the likely pasting that President Sheppard would receive the following November from the ‘Evil Republican™’ Senator running against him.

The interesting thing about the ending of The American President (and, for that matter, those of other recent American political films) is the insight it provides into how liberals think. Consider it for a moment. What fictional political films have been produced in recent years? Rod Lurie’s The Contender, Chris Rock’s Head of State, and Warren Beatty’s Bulworth (there’s also Primary Colors, but I’m going to ignore that, as it was largely based on actual events). What is the theme of each of these films? To put it simply: the American people are all actually liberals, and the only thing preventing them from expressing their liberalism is the stubborn (and inexplicable) refusal of Democratic candidates to place themselves in the Michael Moore/Dennis Kucinich wing of the Democratic Party.

If Bill Clinton was the candidate of the actual people in Hollywood then Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III is the candidate of the images that Hollywood created. One thing that has gone almost totally unremarked upon (an internet search finds a reference by myself and exactly two other stories that even mention it) is that Dean’s campaign slogan, “Dean for America” is obviously cribbed from a 2001 episode of the Aaron Sorkin-penned The West Wing, in which we find out that the campaign slogan of the fictional President Jed Bartlet was “Bartlet for America” (in fact, it’s the title of the episode).

Now I realize that most people would dismiss this as insignificant. I disagree: it says a lot about who Howard Dean wants to be and how his followers see him. This is one of the reasons why the Dean campaign has proved so resilient to bad news: the Deaniacs are operating on the false premise that, if only Americans knew what liberals really believe, they would elect them by overwhelming majorities when, in fact, the truth is much closer to how Ann Coulter has put it in the past: if the American people knew the truth about what liberals believe, they’d probably boil them in oil.

The Deaniacs think that the only reason that other Presidential candidates haven’t gone into the South and told them to stop voting on, “race, God, guns, and gays,” is that they’re cowards when, in fact, the reason is that most Democratic candidates have common sense, something that Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III, for all of his fancy name, seems to lack.

Dean followers might claim that they’ll vote for “anyone but Bush” in the end, but I don’t really believe them. The Dean campaign has taken on the lustre of a crusade: they ain’t going to be stopping until either they win, or are smashed utterly. What I think that the entire ‘Dean/Bartlet for America’ thing reveals best is this: the Dean campaign isn’t really about Howard Dean.

Dean is a vessel for their dreams. Dean is President Bartlet, or President Sheppard, or any of the other liberal Presidents that they’ve seen on screen. They hold a vision, shared by many of the less insightful people on the left, that America is a nation of basically liberal people who are continually tricked by ‘fundamentalist preachers’, the NRA and Evil™ Corporations. Because of this, they believe that all that is required is for someone to come along (like Chris Rock’s character in Head of State) and shout left-wing dogma at them from a national stage.

Frankly, I’m hoping that Dean gets the Democratic nomination, most of all because I’m looking forward to reading Democratic Underground that night. Given the way that they reacted over there after the 2002 Mid-Terms and the California Recall, I suspect that half of them will be posting their suicide notes and letting fly from their windows about ten minutes after the election is called for Bush.
A Report I'm Hearing
Investigative Note: There is an unusual number of personnel present at the Pentagon as of 1730 EST 24 December 2003, according to a Washington source. This source stated that the number of personnel on duty is unusual, even for the heightened alert. "I was on-site every time they raised (and lowered) the alert level, and I have not seen it like this before."

I wonder if anyone has looked to see how busy Pizza places around the Pentagon are?
The New Republic on Dean and Religion
Read this story: now.

The E-Bomb: Or How to Destroy the Chinese Economy
Some have recently expressed concern that the People’s Republic of China is buying US Treasury bonds in an effort to influence American policy. This is a serious problem, but not one which cannot be corrected. The advances made by the Chinese economy in recent years are alarming, but not insurmountable. In fact, China’s heavy stake in US Treasury bonds offers us the opportunity to, if necessary, wage the economic equivalent of thermonuclear war against the Chinese Communists.

Let’s step back for a second. Just how much does the United States owe? At the present time the entire US public debt stands at roughly seven trillion dollars. About 2.1 trillion dollars of that is held by foreign governments and investors. That percentage is seemingly increasing with time as foreign governments (especially the Chinese) continue to purchase American securities. While no comparable figures are available for most foreign nations: in 2001 China’s public debt was estimated at just 3% of its entire GDP so, in other words, the ratio of Chinese public debt held in the United States to American public debt held in China is massive.

So, what exactly do I propose? Simple: if China attempts to use its financial powers to interfere in the US economy, influence US policies, or do anything else harmful to the United States or beneficial to China, then the United States should repudiate every single cent of US public debt held by the Chinese government, Chinese businesses, Chinese citizens, or residents of China. In August of 2003 the Chinese were estimated to hold some $124 billion in American securities. That, of course, only counts those securities that we know about and does not consider the rapid rate at which the Chinese have been accumulating Treasury bonds.

The People’s Republic also believed to hold something like $400 billion US Dollars worth of foreign currency reserves which, of course, it could also use to influence the US economy or world markets in various ways.

US-Chinese trade for this year should probably total something like $200 billion dollars. Of that, roughly 1/6 would constitute US exports to China, with the rest being made up of Chinese exports to the United States.

In other words, while it might look like China has the US backed into a corner: it only looks that way. Depending upon how you read it, the Chinese GDP is either $1.2 trillion a year or $6 trillion a year. The vast disparity in figures is the result of a concept called ‘purchasing power parity’. The nominal GDP (the $1.2 trillion figure) is calculated by adding up all production in local currency figures and converting it to US dollars. The PPP figure, on the other hand, is calculated by assuming that goods and services produced in one country have a real value equal to those in another. In other words, for most purposes, neither figure is quite accurate.

However, when we are discussing matters such as trade and the holding of foreign currencies and bonds, the nominal figure is much more relevant because all of these tasks either require or use foreign exchange.

Thinking about this, consider just what the loss of both the $124 billion in US Treasury bonds and a cut-off of trade with the United States (which, one way or another, would inevitably follow a US repudiation of all foreign debt owed to China) would do to a developing Chinese economy and, in particular, to China’s international economic position. The Chinese would be very lucky to survive such a move with only a lengthy economic depression. More likely, we would see famine, riots, and political disorder in China. The entire Chinese ‘new economy’ would disappear virtually overnight, making instant beggars of those who once aspired to mount a challenge to American power.

Equally important would be the neutralization of all Chinese foreign currency reserves. This, of course, is a more difficult task. It would, for example, be virtually impossible to prevent the Chinese from using whatever US banknotes that they have on hand to make purchases. However, I can’t imagine that the Chinese hold all that much in actual, hard, American cash at any given moment.

The answer might be to time any moves against China with a surprise return of the US Dollar to the Gold Standard. This would be necessary, in part, to stem any loss of global confidence as a result of American economic actions against China. All Americans (and nationals of friendly foreign nations) could be given a fixed amount of time to exchange all of their old American dollars for new Gold-backed dollars, with all US funds originating in China being ineligible for transfer. With stern enough measures, I would expect that the Chinese would be unable to launder more than a small fraction of their massive reserves. Foreign banks (or nations) which collaborate with the Chinese, knowingly or unknowingly, would share in their fate.

It would be of high importance that any such US move comes as a “bolt out of the blue” in order to prevent the Chinese from launching a pre-emptive strike. The actual implementation of these policies might be accompanied by a number of covert cyber-strikes designed to shut down Chinese banking systems and cause other problems, thereby exacerbating the problems.

Naturally, it would be important to spin these moves as being ‘defensive’ in nature. This much, I think, would be rather easy. After all, in a very real sense, they are. The rapid growth of the Chinese economy is a direct threat to America’s position as the world’s only Superpower. Given China’s accumulation of US Treasury Bonds and reserves of US dollars, the strike could be presented as having been made to head off a Chinese strike against the US economy.

I am not foolish enough to think that this would not have major economic effects in the United States. Certainly, it would cost a great many companies a great deal of money and possibly push the US economy into a recession. I’d take it as a given that the Chinese will seize the assets of US companies in China. For this reason, any move against the Chinese would have to be preceded by freezing all Chinese assets in the United States, and seizing them as soon as they move against US assets. As well, any such move would have to be accompanied by the strongest possible assurances to other American trading partners that such action is not pending against them.

Now, I’m not advocating that any of this take place at the present time. After all: it would probably, in the short term at least, cost a fair number of American jobs. However, it’s good to have such a plan in America’s back pocket: and for the Chinese to know of it. Moreover, I would greatly prefer to endure the short-term dislocations caused by such a strategy than I would live to see the Chinese become more powerful than the United States.

China is our enemy. It might suit our short term purposes to deal with them for the present time, but we must never forget: they are our enemies. Better to die a thousand deaths than live in a world ruled by the Chinese. If we must, someday, pay an economic price to destroy the Chinese threat: so be it.

Of course, I understate the difficulties of such a strategy. Anything which destroyed the Chinese economy would also severely damage the economies of most of China’s neighbours. But that’s a risk that I think is worth taking. If we cause damage elsewhere: neca eos omnes, deus suos agnoscet.

No American problem is so severe that it cannot be dealt with via appropriately harsh and brutal action. If the Chinese want to mess with America: let them. When they day is over, it shall not be America’s blackened and distorted corpse that is rolled into a mass grave.
Dean and Christ
Matt Drudge is reporting that Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III is claiming to be a, "'committed believer in Jesus Christ." (No link yet, it's up on the main page).

He may well be (though, given what I've heard, I doubt it). But his followers sure don't. As of 7PM Pacific Time on December 24th, Blog for America lists a huge number of "X for Dean" websites, of which basically none are Christian themed (there's a 'Mormons for Dean' site and a 'Progressive Christians for Dean' site, neither of which have much content). They're outnumbered by a number of other wonderful sites including "Crushies for Dean", "Cyclists for Dean", "Foodies for Dean" and any number of other, odd sites.

The Dean campaign, to me at least, increasingly looks like a cult.
The Wonders of Sexual Liberalism
VANCOUVER, Canada (AFP) - Vancouver is facing the worst outbreak of syphilis per capita in the developed world, with city health officials fearful of a looming epidemic of the sexually transmitted disease once thought almost wiped out in North America.

Cute. I guess I'll get to pay for the treatment of those infected as a result of their irresponsibility as well, that's twice as cute.
Tuesday, December 23, 2003
The Democratic Dilemma
The Democratic Party is backed into a corner. It now appears inevitable that Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III will secure the Presidential nomination in little more than a month. It also appears certain that, if he does so, not only will he lose, but he’ll lose horribly, probably letting the Republicans pick up Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, George, Florida and Louisiana while, at the same time, placing seats as far away as California, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, and perhaps even Wisconsin at risk. However, paradoxally, at this point it appears that Dean is the only potential Democratic candidate with a chance of winning (even if it is a slim chance).

If things break badly for Bush, Dean is the only major Democrat who has the base and following to actually unseat the President. Wesley Clark, John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, or John Edwards (the other Democrats with even a slim chance of winning the nomination) lack any truly motivated base. They’ll benefit from Democratic anti-Bush sentiment: but polls have repeatedly shown that such sentiments are mostly limited to the partisan Democratic base. Additionally, for any Democrat other than Dean to win the nomination now, they will have to do so by traditional methods involving the use of party bosses and big money. If Dean’s quest for the nomination is defeated in such a fashion, it seems likely that his supporters will either support the eventual Democratic nominee with great reluctance or, perhaps, even support a third-party candidate. Any of the major Democrats (other than Dean) is probably guaranteed to win at least 45% of the vote and one hundred and fifty or so electoral votes (unless, of course, there is a major third-party run).

Dean, however, I think could win anywhere from less than 40% of the vote to just over 50%. If Iraq goes badly for Bush and the economy tanks, Dean will be in a position to capitalize on these in a way that the other candidates will not. Moreover, Dean’s strong activist base could prove to be a major asset during a general election, motivating turn-out of non-voters. Moreover, Dean’s fanatical base helps to immunize him against attacks or mistakes which could prove fatal to a more traditional candidate.

However, a Dean win would be a major surprise. I would place the odds against it at something like 50:1. However, it is not impossible. This is why I’ve already begun directing all of my fire towards Dean: he’s the only candidate that worries me.

Some Democrats like to salivate at the idea of General Wesley Clark campaigning against President Bush: they shouldn’t. These Clark supporters seem to think that his military record will immunize him against attacks when, in fact, it will prove to be one of his greatest vulnerabilities. General Clark, it should be remembered, was actually relieved from the biggest command he ever held, as Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. This hasn’t been talked about much to date: but you can bet that it will be extensively discussed in a general election campaign. Many former military officers including General Hugh Shelton, who was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff when Clark was SACEUR, have commented negatively on character of General Clark. Several officers have noted that they have rarely known of a senior officer who was so universally disliked. So, in other words, don’t expect General Clark to turn out to be the Democrat’s man on a white horse.

So, the Democrats are left with a very hard choice: do they nominate Dean, knowing that he has only a slim chance of winning, do they nominate a genial non-entity like Dick Gephardt, knowing that he’ll lose, but he won’t lose as bad as Dean could, or is there another option?

Given that time is running out (and that any scenario that does not end with Howard Brush Dean III as the Democratic nominee is likely to leave his followers embittered) many senior Democrats seem to have elected to sit on their hands and hope for the best. Frankly, I don’t think that there’s much else that they can do at this point. The sane wing of the Democratic Party made a horrible mistake by allowing so many major candidates into the field and front-loading the primary season. The only way to stop Dean now will be for several of the major candidates to withdraw in favor of another. This, to say the least, seems unlikely. Unlike in past campaigns, there won’t be weeks or months for withdrawals and endorsements: there will be days.

So many senior Democrats then are left hoping that Dean won’t lose too badly. However, I think that there hopes are going to be dashed. Dean has far too many knocks against him and, beyond his support on the left-wing of the Democratic Party and his internet base, he doesn’t really have much going for him unless economic and world circumstances drastically change.

Dean has severe personal liabilities. Among these, the most potentially damaging is probably his wife. While the idea that a Presidential candidate would have a wife who simply does not care about the campaign because she’s so busy with her own career might appeal to some on the left, it will not sell in Middle America. Frankly, it makes one wonder as to the state of the Dean union. One can comprehend a wife being uninterested in her husband’s career: but what kind of loyal wife is so wrapped up in their career that they seemingly are uninterested in their husband’s campaign for President? Something tells me that there’s more to the Dean marriage that could come out during a campaign.

Dean’s temperament will also, under the strain of a general election campaign, become a major liability. He regularly says stupid things and, because he contains an all-consuming arrogance, is largely unwilling to retract or apologize for them. The bizarre Confederate flag incident was an example was this, as was his suggestion that President Bush had foreknowledge of the 9-11 attacks. There are others. Earlier this year Dean told the story of a twelve year-old patient of his who he believed to have been impregnated by her father to explain his opposition to parental-notification laws in cases where a child seeks an abortion. The problem was this: that girl wasn’t impregnated by her father, and Dean knew it at the time he told the story. Moreover, he later stated that he never notified the authorities of his initial suspicions meaning that he may have violated Vermont law. Dean runs his mouth: and that will cause him increasingly serious trouble as the campaign goes on.

Dean also has an attitude approaching hostility towards organized religion which, I am certain, will endear him with the left, but will not be helpful in a campaign against the President. When you combine this with his tendency to shoot off his mouth, there exists the possibility that he might make a rather serious misstatement. These aren’t to be dismissed lightly: James G. Blaine lost the 1884 Presidential election in part because he allowed a Protestant Clergyman’s characterization of the Democrats as the party of, “rum, Romanism, and rebellion” to pass unremarked upon. Gerald Ford lost in 1976, in part, as a result of his bizarre assertion that Poland was not communist dominated. I would not put it beyond Dean to, at some point in the campaign; get caught dismissing Christians as “simple-minded” or something along similar lines.

Even in the best case scenario with Dean (outside of that fluke chance that absolutely everything will break in his favor between now and next November) the Democrats will lose four of the five open Southern Senate seats, the Presidency and (given the apparent success of the Texas redistricting plan) a dozen seats in the House. And that, of course, ignores the much higher chance that pretty much everything could break right for President Bush between now and next November.

Imagine this: Iraq goes fairly well for the next year and, for the most part, begins to slip from the public eye. The economy grows at around 5%. The US scores successes elsewhere in the War. Then, in the late Spring, the Massachusetts Supreme Court, reacting to a failure of the Legislature to move according to its wishes, fully imposes gay marriage upon the land: setting off the mother of all cultural battles. In late October, Osama Bin Laden is captured or confirmed as dead. All of this is possible and, under such conditions, we can forget about Dean losing in a McGovern-like landslide and begin to talk about an Alf Landon-style defeat for the Doctor. It could well be a Republican Passover, with the Angel of Death passing over all the land: smiting the Democrats and sparing all Republicans.

So, why are some Democrats willing to risk this? Simple: the Republicans recovered from 1936. If Dean is stopped now, there’s a good chance that the Democratic Party could end up going the way of the Whigs, Know-Nothings, and Federalists. If Howard Dean were stopped by the Old-Boys network of the Democratic Party, he (or someone who captures his following) might well launch a third-party campaign that could perform better than the regular Democratic candidate. Think about it for a second.

At the moment, the only thing limiting the liberal positions taken by Dean is his need to move to the centre in a general election. If he is running a third-party campaign, he no longer needs to worry about that: he can campaign exclusively to the left-wing of the Democratic Party which, all told, could number as much as a quarter of the electorate. Think about that.

So, in other words, the Democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Moderate Democrats are even more damned. They can go down to defeat under Dean, they can split (and possibly destroy the party), or they can take the chance that Dean might actually win, in which case he would probably destroy the moderate wing of the party over the course of his single term.

It goes without saying, I think, that I’m looking forward to next November.
Monday, December 22, 2003
The Enemy at Home
The US 9th Circuit Court of Appeals is more than just a liberal court. It is an active enemy cell, a disloyal institution which has taken the side of America’s enemies in the War on Terror. Its recent ruling that the detainees held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba must be given access to lawyers and American courts is nothing short of treason, if you accept the Constitutional definition of treason as giving “aid and comfort” to enemies of the United States. They are part of a growing Corps of enemies in the homeland who are, in many ways, more dangerous to the survival of the Republic. Our enemy is not just over there, they are also right here, at home.

Now, let me make the dimensions and motives of this enemy clear. I do not believe that the liberal Judges on the 9th Circuit are covert members of al-Qaeda any more than I ever believed that Jimmy Carter was a covert winner of the Order of Lenin. The enemy within operates in the fashion that they do because they are post-American and, therefore, they lack all belief in the meaning of national identity. Lacking, as they do, a fundamental sense of Americanism, this portion of the left places a far higher value on ideology than they do on country. For them ‘America’ as a concept is, at best, meaningless or, at worst, a dangerous vestige of the reactionary old regime.

They fancy themselves (and, in actuality, are) ‘citizens of the world’. This is a term which deserves some examination. Think back to the time of the Civil War. Many officers, including Robert E. Lee, believed in the Union, but sided with the Confederacy because their ‘country’ (or, in other words, their home state) did so. Today we view such sentiments as quaint. That, I think, is how the ‘citizens of the world’ view people who would put America first. The United States, to them, is viewed only in the context of the larger world.

This viewpoint, in essence, means that these people constitute a large and disloyal group. Their loyalty to the United States is entirely contingent upon politics. When Bill Clinton was President they were loyal because they believed that would advance the cause of the left. Now that George W. Bush is President, they behave disloyally because they believe that will advance the cause of the left today. It is a spirit utterly devoid of patriotism, which much of the left today considers to be a reactionary and outdated sentiment.

The advent of the internet has accelerated the spread of this contagion. American, European, Australian, and Canadian leftists (along with a few assorted others) get a place where they can stand side by side and develop a sense of solidarity which helps to further erode national feeling. Into the gap caused by that loss rush a sort of international leftist ideology. Someday talk to a Howard Dean campaign worked, a Canadian New Democrat, a British peace activist, and a German politician. The thing which will quickly strike you is this: they all believe pretty much the same things about politics, about America, and about the world. The creed of much of the American left is an Internationalism that transcends Americanism. If given the chance they’d gladly sign away the flag for gay marriage and universal health care. It isn’t even that (in most American cases, at least) they really hate America as much as they don’t care about it).

Howard Dean’s campaign howls about how they’re going to take back the country: but do they actually believe in the country? Is the nation an ends onto itself, or merely a means onto an ends? I believe that, for them at least, it is the latter. In fact, as time has passed, I’ve increasingly noticed that the Dean campaign is a lot like syphilis. People join the campaign as normal, if slightly misguided, Americans and come out of it as deranged, ultra-partisan, Dean-bots whose passion for America is matched only by the oratorical abilities of Steve Forbes. Like syphilis, supporting Howard Dean will eventually rot your brain.

The question now left to us is of how to deal with these people. As tempting as it might sound, we cannot throw all of them in jail. But, at the same time, we must do something against them. This is wartime, and we cannot allow a large element determined to aid our enemies to operate freely.

Sunday, December 21, 2003
Andrew Sullivan, the New York Times, and the FMA
Andrew Sullivan takes issue with the Sunday New York Times story on support for the Federal Marriage Amendment.

It's worth recalling that the flag-burning amendment was supported by around 80 percent of the public, and the balanced budget amendment by around 85 percent - and yet both failed.

What he misses here, I think, is this: no one was going to really rally for these issues. It was a matter of sentiment that the public didn't care so strongly about. No Congressman who voted against either Amendment was going to lose their seat as a result or face a primary challenge, or anything else.

In fact- had either Amendment gone to the states, they certainly would have passed.

Sullivan also misses this: it seems to be widely evident that gay marriage, when asked at the beginning of a fight, is much more popular than it is a little while later. Look at the eventual reaction to Civil Unions in ultra-liberal Vermont. Or look at Canada, where support for gay marriage dropped by as much as twenty points in a few months. If it looks like gay marriage is going to be judicially-imposed, it will be hard for the Democrats not to go along with an Amendment.

I think the eventual compromise on the issue will be that there will be an Amendment codifying marriage- but allowing the states to create 'civil unions.' An Amendment which bans all gay unions will not pass- one which simply restricts marriage to a man and a woman will.

After all- not a single major Democratic Presidential candidate can be found who will openly support gay marriage. What happens next May, when MA will probably have to allow gay marriage, people flood into the state to get married, and then file forty-nine Federal lawsuits?

If the Republicans push for the FMA under such conditions, and the Democrats manage to obstruct it, they'll ice a lot of Congressmen and Senators. If they seek to stop ratification: they're in danger of losing State Houses.
On American Imperialism
Today the word ‘Imperialist’ is mostly used as an epithet by the radical left. “US Imperialist Circles Plot Aggression against Korean Workers’ State” might make a good headline in the Daily Worker, but the actual word ‘Imperialist’ seems anachronistic when used outside of the context of historical discussion. Yet I think that is needs to be brought back into use. While the left might hurl the word as an insult, I wear it proudly. Yes, I am willing to proclaim it openly: I am an Imperialist.

What is Imperialism? Does my being an Imperialist mean that I wish to redraw the maps of continents and carve economic concessions out of foreign nations. Hardly. What I advocate is a largely indirect imperialism whereby other nations (and eventually the entire world) will be brought into the family of Western nations. It is silly to pretend that other civilizations are equal to that of the West when all objective evidence demonstrates that they are not.

An American Empire already de facto exists. We must admit this and begin to deal with it, or we shall suffer the consequences. An Empire, such as that controlled by the United States today will require sacrifices and bring benefits. We must admit this and make the case for it to the American people.

The Basis of Empire:
Contrary to popular belief, there is a proud tradition of Empire in the West. From the dawn of the West, great Empires have exported out values and brought foreign peoples into the light of reason. In particular, the Athenian, Roman, and British Empires should be our model. Athens is the birthplace of the West and we today are its descendents. Rome spread Western ideals through the known world and enjoyed centuries of unrivalled power. Britain brought the blessing of civilization to five continents. This is not, as some would suggest, something to run from or be ashamed of: the collective accomplishments of Athens, Rome, and Britain represent the greatest achievement in the history of humanity. The hidden empires of the West: those of Christ and those of the Jews, bring us greater glory still. This is the legacy which we now must embrace.

America is left with the mantle of Empire: whether we like it or not. Who else could lead the world in this dangerous new era: France? The United Nations? China? There is no other nation which could successfully be the leader of decent humanity and there is no other nation which deserves to. Modern America is the inheritor of heritage of liberty that is a unique gift to the West.

We must accept the mantle of Empire because we desire progress. Those who claim that, absent a world government of some sort, the civilization will eventually destroy itself are probably right. The pace of technology is as such that weapons of mass destruction are within the means of even the poorest countries. Before too long they will be within the reach of individuals. Other dangerous technologies, groups, and regimes threaten both our way of life and our very lives.

If we must live with some form of world government then, what form do we wish it to take? Does anyone sincerely believe that the United Nations is up to the job? Would any patriotic American ever consent to live under such a system? I pray to God that they would not. George W. Bush has done more to reign in the thugs of the world in three years than the United Nations has done in fifty-eight years.

Peace for the world does not lay down the path of negotiations and conciliation. Our enemies, or at least our sane enemies, respect only one thing: strength. This world does not need a diplomat: it needs a dictator.

America must, for its own sake as well as that of others, become the “good King” of the world. That does not mean that we must be involved in every decision of every nation. But it does mean that we will have to accept that we must keep the peace and act to destroy threats. It will mean accepting spending and sacrifice. But it will also bring benefits.

With our efforts to assure are own security, we can spread the precious heritage of Western liberty throughout the world. We can secure our own economy by designing a world economic system with the rules stacked in our favor. Free trade, it should be recalled, does not work the best between equals: it works best when there is a disparity of power (or, at least, it works best for the nation in whose favor that disparity lies). As it was for Britain: economic and scientific progress will be the greatest benefits of American Imperialism.

What exactly is this ‘heritage’ which enables us to lead the world? What are the hallmarks of Western progress?

An Interest in Scientific and Material Advancement: One of the great inherent advantages of Western civilization is its forward-looking nature. Much is often made of the fact that the Chinese ‘invented’ gunpowder. However, the truth of the matter is this: the Chinese had gunpowder for hundreds of years and never managed to do much more with it than build fireworks. Westerners got hold of gunpowder and, within a few years, they were blowing down castle walls with it.

A quick examination of major non-Western civilizations (the Chinese, the Indians, Africans, Native Americans, Moslems, and the Japanese, among others) reveals a single common thread: without outside factors, none of these seem to have ever been particularly interested in scientific or material development. A Chinese peasant of the 5th Century BC and a Chinese peasant in the year 1900 would probably find that they had much more in common than they had separating them. Advancement in modern China has come only through outside influences. Similarly, Japan actually deliberately shunned advancement and spent several centuries seeking to revert to an earlier state. This was not because either the Japanese or Chinese lack a racial capacity for development: it is because they are culturally inclined against it. China built a fleet which was capable of dispatching men to virtually any point in the world: yet they never established any presence overseas.

A hundred generations of North American Indians managed to live and die without making a single notable contribution to human history. Now, I am fully aware that this statement will raise the ire of some, but to them I ask: if the Indians were so sophisticated, then where are their cities and monuments? Where are their great works of art and literature?

In fact, looking at the span of human history leads to a single conclusion: mankind, for the most part, has traditionally shunned progress. More human progress has been made in the three thousand year history of the West than was ever made in all the rest of time. Modern humans emerged in Africa and Asia 100,000 years ago, and appeared in Europe 28,000 years ago. If one assumes that all cultures are equally inclined towards development, then should not Africa and Asia be vastly more advanced than the rest of the world?

The only possible conclusion, it seems to me, is that there is something special about the West. We are, in fact, culturally superior to some extent. We are culturally driven to advance in ways that other people aren’t. To this very day there are people in parts of Africa and Asia who live in ways which would be comprehensible to our earliest ancestors. Without Western interference over many years, I wonder what all of Africa would be like today.

Only Western Civilization brings with it actual growth and development. In many ways, it seems to me that most non-Western civilizations are set up to actively inhibit growth, which is viewed as bringing undesirable complications.

Human Rights and Individual Liberty: The key, I think, to Western superiority is the liberation of the individual. We live in a society so concerned with personal liberties that some circles fly into hysteria over the idea that enemies captured on foreign battlefields could be denied access to lawyers.

We, I often believe, have gone too far in our obsession with ‘human rights.’ Even a society which is as deeply concerned with liberty as ours has to worry about its own security. Civilization isn’t going to end because someone who was planning to blow up a radioactive bomb in a city is held without charges. It just might end in the face of persistent biological attacks. Yet, still, we must understand that our culture of freedom is one of the major reasons for our success.

In most cases (where there is not a compelling security interest involved) we tend to place a priority on individual rights. We do not permit people to be pointlessly wasted in the name of ‘custom’. The West, unlike most other civilizations, has never engaged in any form of organized human sacrifice.

When I hear someone prattling on about the ‘equality of all cultures’ I am often reminded of the story of a British officer in India who came upon the scene of a Suttee, a Hindu rite where a live wife is burned upon the funeral pyre of her dead husband. Told that such practices were an “Indian tradition”, the officer responded that it was a British tradition to hang people who did such things. We live in an uncivilized world. Where we can we have the ability and the obligation to bring a little light in and to safeguard the rights of others.

Human rights are not only generally a good thing because people like them. They are also a good thing because they lead to development. Slaves do not make scientific breakthroughs or produce great works of art. Free people, however, do. The liberation of the human spirit is to the great benefit of everyone.

The Progress Drive: We are left with the decision between stagnation and progress. A world order in which non-Western powers are allowed to dominate will be a static one. I would, I think, even include the European Union amongst the ranks of the ‘non-Western’ powers. ‘Western’ is about more than geography. It is about a spirit of exploration and discovery which is derived from some strange and innate spark. Modern Europeans, if left to their own devices, would probably be perfectly content to remain exactly where they are. An examination of human history would lead one to conclude that this is the natural state of man.

It is only in the West, it seems, that we develop, explore, and invent for the sake of doing so. Here we do things the way that they work best, not the way that they have always been done.

This is especially significant because we have, to some extent, reached a plateau of Earth-bound human development. The real future of mankind lies in space, where we can build colonies on other worlds and vastly expand the human population. The Chinese, despite the obvious need, never established overseas colonies: Europe did.

The Nature of the Empire:
Am I saying then that Imperialism is an entirely altruistic enterprise? No: far from it. American Imperialism will bring the blessings of civilization to the world- with a price. In exchange for the United States being the global Hegemon, it gets the benefits of Empire. This means special trade deals for Americans, extra rights for American companies, additional protection for American citizens, and perpetual American military superiority. These are the benefits of Empire. A dominant (and well-run) Empire is going to become richer and safer with time.

American Imperialism is rooted in an acceptance of two basic facts. First, that Western Civilization is the only civilization capable of bring progress to this world and that, second, the United States of America is the only nation capable of spreading the virtues of the West.

The focus of the American Empire would be threefold:
1) The American Empire will bring peace and security to the Earth by destroying enemies of freedom where it is easily possible and otherwise containing or deterring them. This cannot be done by an ordinary nation or even a combination of ordinary nations. The only two entities which could undertake such action are a World Government or a dominant, hegemonic power. The latter (so long as it is the United States) is, in my opinion, preferable.
2) The American Empire will promote human advancement by extending the reach of human freedom and promoting the useful sciences. The more free and well-educated people we have on the Earth (in other words, the more ‘Western’ people) the higher the likelihood of necessary major breakthroughs such as Faster-than-light travel.
3) The American Empire will usher in the next phase of human existence: the settlement of major populations off the surface of the Earth.

The Means of Empire:
Now it must be noted here that I do not advocate the conquest and colonization of other nations (though I do advocate colonization: more on that later, though). Rather, I would use a combination of military bases, collaboration with local elites, and, where necessary, short-term direct military occupation. We do this for our own security and gain as well as the security and gain of others. Benevolent Empire is always a balancing of altruism and enlightened self-interest.

People say, “Empires always fall.” This has been true, at least to the present time. However, this is not so much true because it is an immutable fact of history as it is true because those running Empires have made fatal and often stupid mistakes.

The Athenian Empire fell because it horribly mismanaged the Peloponnesian War. The British and Roman Empires both fell because of over-extension and other mismanagement. Of course: it took hundreds of years for that to happen so, even if America is “following the path of Rome” as many have written, there are about three hundred years to go before the fall.

The American Empire should (and probably will) avoid the greatest trap into which other Empires have historically fallen: attempting to conquer vast swaths of already inhabited land. This was the downfall of Rome and of Britain, but it shall not be the fall of America.

Instead the American Empire will rule by proxy: operating in the shadows with relative handfuls of administrators and soldiers. The rule of the Empire will be mostly peaceful, as most will eventually reconcile themselves to its power and work to enjoy its benefits.

As I have recommended earlier- an American Empire should annex both the Moon and Mars. It should also look into discarding the Antarctic Treaty and pressing American claims there (though, perhaps, allowing the claims of some friendly nations as well). I fully realize that some will consider such a venture to be a waste of time. But I will remind you that the purchase of Alaska was once known as “Seward’s Folly.” While the practical uses of Antarctica may not be apparent at the present time: that does not mean that they are not there or that they will not appear in the future. It ought to be recalled that Antarctica is an actual continent, albeit one covered in ice. It is certainly rich in resources (which, I admit, cannot be extracted for the present time). What isn’t great about owning an extra continent, especially when it can be done with a minimum cost?

Yes, I am an Imperialist:
Some will try and confuse Imperialism with Racism. They are, in fact, totally different things. As it happens, most of the nations which are seemingly unfit to govern themselves are mostly made up of minority groups. This doesn’t mean that minorities are inherently incapable of government: it just means that those in question are.

I’ve never bought into the lie that “all cultures are equal”- it is obvious to any unbiased observer that the culture of the West is vastly superior to any other. If we accept that: must we not also accept a duty to seek to spread that culture elsewhere? Imagine the potential of a world full of dynamic Westerners.

Empire is the destiny of great nations. It is the destiny of America. The American Empire can lead mankind into the future: soaring into the stars upon the backs of those great heroes who raised a mighty Republic from nothing, promoted it to the head of nations, and on behalf of a just God who has made it the master of the world.
"The diehards will just have to die hard"
We've got some great men in Iraq. This story is just too good for words:

But Lieutenant Colonel Steven Russell isn't nervous. He believes he has the best protection.

"If God doesn't intend for me to die in Iraq then nothing the enemy can do will make it so," he told Reuters.

"I have a strong belief in Jesus Christ as my lord and saviour."

Meet the man who heads the search for some of Iraq's most dangerous guerrillas in Saddam Hussein's home town of Tikrit, a grim place that only has dust and flatlands in common with Russell's native Del City, Oklahoma.

He is not your typical tobacco-chewing American soldier with nude centrefolds hanging in his barracks.

Russell is a deeply religious family man who believes good old-fashioned American discipline and prayers will help lead him to Saddam's hardcore supporters.

"The diehards will just have to die hard," he said in an interview, sitting in one of Saddam's former palaces as American soldiers grunted and lifted weights nearby.


UPDATE: This man should be a General.

“In retaliation, American troops backed by Bradley fighting vehicles swept through Iraqi neighborhoods before dawn , blasting houses suspected of being insurgent hideouts with machine guns and heavy weapons fire.
“ ‘This is to remind the town that we have teeth and claws and we will use them,’ said Lt. Col. Steven Russell, commander of the 1st Battalion, 22nd Infantry Regiment.”
--AP story, Nov. 8, after Black Hawk copter goes down.

“ ‘They are not allowed to go around kissing pictures of Saddam in this city,’ Russell said. ‘It will not happen.’
“Afterwards, Jaburi and Russell interviewed a middle-aged man in traditional Arab clothing who they suspect of inciting demonstrations.
“ ‘Look me in the eye. Let me make some-thing very clear,’ the American officer told the man over tea at the governor’s office.
“ ‘If our ears and eyes see and hear you are connected with demonstrations, and anti-coalition activities you will be going to jail for a very long time.’
--Reuters, Dec. 16

AFP Bullshit
The left often talks about how stories are 'filtered' from the Extreme Right into a right-wing media 'echo chamber'.

Well, more or less, this story- now on Yahoo thanks to Agence France Presse- is cribbed from the British Sunday Express via an unnamed British source who, in all probability, got the story from some Kurdish press sources (or maybe the hit-and-miss folks at Debka who, sometimes, are amazingly accurate and othertimes are telling tales about masses of Chinese troops in Afghanistan).

Now, because this story has an AFP stamp on it, it can be reported in the 'mainstream' US press. Hence how rumor gets turned into a story.
Howard Brush Dean III: Abortionist?
Remember when I was talking about 'unknown unknowns'? Read this.
Good Luck
Some French prosecutor wants to prosecute Dick Cheney. The alleged-men at DU are slobbering. Good luck.

Damned Frogs.
Polly Toynbee of the Guradian...
Manages to get taken in by a Nigerian Bank Scam and tries to blame President Bush for it.

The Best part:
Looking back at the letters now, I can see it all. For heaven's sake, she even said both her parents had died of the ebola flesh-eating virus.
Saturday, December 20, 2003
A Truly Nutty Idea from Howard Dean
Responding to a Washington Post editorial which declared him 'out of the mainstream'