The Revolution of ’10 and Onwards
My first thought on seeing Scott Brown elected to the United States Senate - to fill a seat that was last held by a Republican during the Truman Administration - was of Churchill’s reported reaction to Pearl Harbor. “So,” he thought, “we had won after all.”
The decisive blow to the Democratic agenda, coming one day short of a year from when Barack Obama took office, also brought to mind Churchill on the balcony of the Ministry of Health in May 1945. “This is your victory,” he told the crowd. And so it is today. To everyone who never gave up on the American spirit, to those who never surrendered, to those who were undaunted by the odds and the ceaseless and merciless attacks of the enemy: this is your victory. It is the victory of the American people and of all of the people, wherever they might be, who must have freedom and know the price that must be paid that it may be preserved.
But, having quoted certain words of Churchill, some others seem appropriate. “This is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Hubris, that age-old enemy of the victorious, led the Democrats into error. They advanced on too broad a front, without a plan for victory. They thought that we were defeated and that many of us would be passive and weak. They thought wrong. Our line held. But the war is not finished yet.
At Marathon, the Athenians, fighting against incredible odds, stopped the Persian army cold. However, as soon as the battle was concluded the exhausted Greek soldiers had to rush back to Athens to thwart a Persian attempt to take the city by sea. Likewise, we must be increasingly on the alert for the inevitable Democratic effort to use their remaining forces to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
The real danger is not that the Democrats will now force the Senate bill through the House. Nor is it that they will delay the seating of Senator Brown. Personally, I would welcome either development as they would likely fail in either and, in any case, they would be politically suicidal to attempt. No, the danger is that President Obama will take this as an opportunity to pivot politically, put some distance between himself and the Democrats in Congress and perhaps even support those elements among both Democratic caucuses who would like to see new Congressional leadership. Remember: President Clinton was re-elected two years after the Republicans took control of the Congress. Victory now emphatically does not guarantee victory later.
In 1950, General MacArthur nearly won the Korean War by forcing a landing behind enemy lines at Inchon. The North Koreans were routed and their army was almost-totally destroyed in the battles that followed as the UN forces broke out from the Pusan perimeter. However, as they approached the Yalu River, half a million Red Chinese soldiers joined the fight and suddenly the Allies were faced with what MacArthur described as, “an entirely new war.”
What we learned last night was simple enough: Obama cannot and will not be re-elected if he runs on the issues that he’s highlighted and pushed over the last year. He can be - and he will be - however if he now pivots and draws Republicans into a series of the same sort of overreaches and punches into the air as Clinton did in 1995-1996 and, for that matter, has has happened to the Democrats over the last year.
We must internalize the lessons of the last few elections - and act upon them.
First, the American people are looking for change. They’ve repeatedly voted for it and they haven’t gotten it yet.
Second, the change that they are looking for is non-ideological, at least in the sense that the people who are swinging these elections are not voting based on ideology but rather on what they think might work.
Third, there is a widespread feeling of general disgust for the political class as a whole that is rather unlike anything that we’ve seen in our lifetimes - at least in America.
Fourth, Americans are willing to sacrifice if the reasons for those sacrifices - and the rewards that may come from them - are explained clearly and honestly.
I, for one, suggest that Republicans look abroad for inspiration. Specifically, I would suggest that they study the course of three Provincial Governments in my native Canada: Alberta in 1993, Ontario in 1995, and British Columbia in 2001.
Each of those provinces elected a new government (or re-elected an old one with a new leader, in the case of Alberta) that came into office promising a fairly radical reduction in the size of government. Each, with varying degrees of success, came to office and slashed government services, cut taxes, and cut spending. Each of them was re-elected. In Canada.
This was because voters, like I believe American voters do now, recognized that their governments were too large and too expensive. It wasn’t, for many voters (who, in two cases, had just previously voted to put admitted socialists into government a few years earlier) a debate about theory, it was a reality-based discussion. It’s easy to get lost - and to lose the debate - when you’re arguing the theoretical merits of smaller versus bigger government, especially since the liberals have pretty much all of the emotional cards in the deck sitting in their hand. It’s easy to win the argument that, “we cannot afford it” when you have high taxes, a stagnant economy, and massive deficits to cite.
The moral case against big government is hard to sell to a lot of voters. The practical case practically sells itself.
Second, in each of these places, conservatives were able to win office by making a good-government argument. They argued that they would be better managers of those government programs that voters liked than their opponents would. This should be the core of a winning Republican message for 2010 and beyond: government should do fewer things overall but, those things that government should do, it should be the best in the world at.
Run against government itself, and Obama can take up the mantle of the defense of downtrodden, etc, etc - rally his base - and maybe be narrowly re-elected against an unappealing Republican opponent in 2012. Obama can pivot from his current position and launch counter-attacks against “uncaring” Republicans and so forth. You want to freeze him.
Attack his base. Part of all of the campaigns that I cited above was widespread disgust at the antics of public-sector workers. Forget attacks on “welfare queens” and the like - those are yesterday. The welfare Mom with the Cadillac no longer moves voters who don’t already belong to us. The mid-level public servant with a Cadillac and pensions and benefits to match, on the other hand, makes a very compelling public enemy.
Attack the “community organizers” - who Obama can’t abandon. People don’t get, except in the abstract, Trillions of dollars. Let’s comb through the Federal budget and attack every single “community organization” that’s collecting tax dollars and gives us an opening. Those people won’t vote for us anyways and they’re Obama’s base - he can’t abandon them, no matter how nuts and repellant they appear to the public as a whole.
The battle is begun, but now the hard part begins. Today is a great day, but there will be trying days ahead.

